Campus Point Waves

fetching latest conditions...

ML prediction · online ridge model

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SPOT-1644 · ground truth

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Nick Nidzieko / UCSB

Scale factor corrected

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direction-bin lookup · R²=0.582

Harvest offshore swell

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CDIP 071 · 548m depth

Wind · Campus Point

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MOP raw

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before correction

Tide · MLLW

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SPOT period

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peak dir —

avg correction

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over logged period

dominant swell

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hours logged

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Wave height — last 72h (feet)

daytime surf hours approx 6am–8pm PT

corrected forecast SPOT buoy (ground truth) MOP raw ML prediction

Harvest swell direction — last 72h

offshore direction at Harvest buoy (° true)

Dp (degrees)

Tide — Santa Barbara (feet, MLLW)

NOAA station 9411340

water level

Wind speed — last 72h (knots)

Campus Point · Open-Meteo

wind speed

Swell direction distribution — all data

Model accuracy vs SPOT-1644 ground truth

computing...

Scale factor corrected

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mean abs error (ft)

bias —

R² —

ML prediction

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mean abs error (ft)

bias —

R² —

MOP raw (baseline)

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mean abs error (ft)

bias —

R² —

Predicted vs observed — scale factor

points on the 1:1 line = perfect prediction · daytime only

corrected 1:1 line

Predicted vs observed — ML model

points on the 1:1 line = perfect prediction · daytime only

ML pred 1:1 line

Rolling error — last 72h · corrected vs ML vs SPOT

lower = better · based on last 72h of paired observations

Daytime error only 6am–8pm PT · when surfing actually happens

Scale factor · daytime MAE

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mean abs error (ft)

bias —

— daytime obs

ML model · daytime MAE

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mean abs error (ft)

bias —

— daytime obs

MOP raw · daytime MAE

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mean abs error (ft)

bias —

baseline

computing daytime error...

Daytime error over time — last 72h

only hours between 6am–8pm PT included · null = nighttime (excluded)

Recent forecasts last 20 hours

time (UTC)	corrected	SPOT buoy	corr error	ML pred	ML error	MOP raw	Tp (s)	wind	tide	bin	confidence